Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +110 JMU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +9 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -0.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+47.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -0.4 (+8.6) | 148.8 (+46.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.5 (+9.5) | 145.0 (+50.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -0.8 (+8.2) | 146.5 (+48.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -0.5 (+8.5) | 147.5 (+47.5) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JMU 82 – 57 TXST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | JMU 73 – 68 TXST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | JMU 82 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TXST 63 – 62 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#202) | 0.2 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#219) | 0.62 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#235) | 0.58 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#208) | 0.570 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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