Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -1000 TXST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -11.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -9.2 (-4.2) | 144.1 (-3.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -9.7 (-4.7) | 143.1 (-2.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -9.2 (-4.2) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -8.8 (-3.8) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JMU 82 – 57 TXST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TXST 102 – 93 JMU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | JMU 82 – 65 TXST |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TXST 63 – 62 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-4 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 12-2 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#63) | -2.3 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#38) | -0.19 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#48) | -0.17 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#65) | 0.509 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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