Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -700 TXST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +17 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -17.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -14.5 (+2.5) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -15.1 (+1.9) | 144.5 (+2.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -15.7 (+1.3) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -15.0 (+2.0) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JMU 82 – 57 TXST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TXST 102 – 93 JMU |
| Mar 11, 2024 | JMU 73 – 68 TXST |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TXST 63 – 62 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-4 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 12-2 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#40) | -1.8 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#7) | 0.30 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.03 (#6) | 0.45 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#73) | 0.543 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 26.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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