Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | SF +333 GONZ -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -5.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -3.3 (+1.3) | 157.2 (-5.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -2.0 (+0.0) | 155.9 (-3.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -3.9 (+1.9) | 156.6 (-4.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.7 (+1.7) | 155.8 (-3.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 85.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#110) | 13.4 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#122) | 2.92 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#112) | 3.91 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#156) | 0.655 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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