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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
35–17 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
52 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
@
Georgia Tech
|
-3.2 | 146.2 | 39% | 70–76 | ✗ |
Duke
@
NC State
|
-0.7 | 141.4 | 47% | 60–84 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
Oklahoma
|
+2.2 | 120.5 | 58% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
Tulane
|
+13.5 | 154.2 | 89% | 77–93 | ✓ |
Temple
@
South Florida
|
+3.4 | 136.8 | 62% | 68–64 | ✗ |
UCF
@
East Carolina
|
-6.2 | 128.0 | 29% | 64–61 | ✓ |
Northern Iowa
@
Valparaiso
|
-2.1 | 135.2 | 43% | 69–67 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Michigan
|
+2.4 | 145.9 | 59% | 69–79 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Florida
|
+9.7 | 146.7 | 81% | 66–63 | ✗ |
George Washington
@
Richmond
|
+8.0 | 139.2 | 77% | 63–73 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Duquesne
|
+4.5 | 135.9 | 66% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Dayton
|
+15.8 | 130.4 | 92% | 56–76 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Davidson
|
+7.9 | 138.4 | 77% | 57–80 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+1.6 | 127.6 | 56% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
Rhode Island
|
+1.8 | 136.4 | 56% | 79–82 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Radford
|
+14.8 | 138.6 | 91% | 65–60 | ✗ |
Presbyterian
@
Winthrop
|
+7.1 | 137.4 | 74% | 72–82 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
High Point
|
+5.2 | 159.5 | 68% | 76–72 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
Charleston Southern
|
-7.4 | 149.0 | 25% | 79–74 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Campbell
|
-3.0 | 125.6 | 39% | 58–63 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Mercer
|
+4.0 | 145.2 | 64% | 53–52 | ✗ |
Western Carolina
@
East Tennessee State
|
+7.3 | 139.6 | 75% | 71–60 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+1.6 | 134.7 | 56% | 61–73 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Furman
|
+11.4 | 145.1 | 85% | 72–97 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Elon
|
-10.2 | 133.9 | 18% | 81–66 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Massachusetts
|
+2.0 | 148.4 | 57% | 81–90 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+0.5 | 152.7 | 52% | 60–69 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Samford
|
+15.7 | 147.3 | 92% | 78–87 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alabama A&M
|
+13.1 | 133.5 | 88% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Illinois State
|
-5.4 | 144.6 | 31% | 76–67 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Missouri State
|
+16.9 | 124.1 | 94% | 62–85 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Southern Illinois
|
+5.3 | 120.9 | 69% | 49–53 | ✓ |
Belmont
@
UIC
|
-2.6 | 147.0 | 41% | 77–71 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Murray State
|
-6.1 | 128.1 | 29% | 58–67 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Providence
|
-7.0 | 148.4 | 26% | 61–73 | ✗ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alabama State
|
+1.7 | 139.0 | 56% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+15.5 | 139.0 | 92% | 61–91 | ✓ |
Lindenwood
@
Little Rock
|
+4.5 | 152.4 | 66% | 67–62 | ✗ |
Missouri
@
Arkansas
|
+11.1 | 163.1 | 84% | 68–74 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Texas Southern
|
-0.8 | 130.6 | 47% | 85–72 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Baylor
|
+6.8 | 143.0 | 73% | 88–87 | ✗ |
Wake Forest
@
North Carolina
|
+11.9 | 160.9 | 86% | 79–88 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
Virginia Tech
|
+7.8 | 144.5 | 76% | 68–65 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
Butler
|
+14.4 | 140.4 | 91% | 70–78 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Northwestern
|
+2.2 | 127.2 | 58% | 60–73 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+2.9 | 140.3 | 60% | 66–62 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Nevada
|
+8.4 | 140.3 | 78% | 69–80 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
+1.5 | 146.1 | 55% | 76–57 | ✗ |
Maine
@
UMass Lowell
|
+13.0 | 146.7 | 88% | 70–72 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Rutgers
|
+10.0 | 122.3 | 82% | 50–64 | ✓ |
Coastal Carolina
@
App State
|
+7.6 | 136.4 | 75% | 62–63 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Bellarmine
|
-2.5 | 138.4 | 41% | 75–74 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.