Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +230 INST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -5.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -5.0 (-4.0) | 147.3 (-4.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.6 (-4.4) | 144.8 (-1.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.2 (-4.8) | 143.6 (-0.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.0 (-4.0) | 144.4 (-1.4) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#260) | 4.9 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#261) | 0.72 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#263) | 0.70 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#283) | 0.526 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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