Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -250 TCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +1 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -6.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -4.7 (-5.7) | 143.6 (+31.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -5.2 (-6.2) | 141.9 (+33.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.1 (-6.1) | 141.6 (+33.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.2 (-6.2) | 141.5 (+33.5) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#19) | 10.8 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#19) | 2.41 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#36) | 4.15 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#33) | 0.542 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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