Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UML -700 ME +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UML -13.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -10.5 (-8.5) | 143.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -11.4 (-9.4) | 140.2 (+1.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -10.6 (-8.6) | 145.9 (-3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -11.1 (-9.1) | 143.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 8-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#91) | -3.9 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#70) | -0.89 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#72) | -0.60 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#114) | 0.467 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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