Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +170 CONN -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -6.6 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -3.6 (+15.6) | 150.7 (-16.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.3 (+15.3) | 144.6 (-10.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.5 (+15.5) | 148.9 (-14.9) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.1 (+16.1) | 149.0 (-15.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#42) | 21.1 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#35) | 3.94 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#29) | 5.11 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#64) | 0.649 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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