Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -110 UNCA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -4.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -2.2 (-6.2) | 152.9 (-4.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -2.2 (-6.2) | 152.8 (-4.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -2.4 (-6.4) | 153.0 (-5.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -2.3 (-6.3) | 153.0 (-5.0) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-0 |
| Away | 2-11 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#200) | -2.0 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#196) | 0.05 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#228) | -0.22 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#189) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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