Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | ECU +220 UCF -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +3 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -5.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.5 (+1.5) | 128.9 (-3.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -5.0 (+2.0) | 130.3 (-5.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -3.6 (+0.6) | 129.9 (-4.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -4.5 (+1.5) | 130.8 (-5.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | UCF 84 – 58 ECU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | UCF 69 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 19, 2022 | UCF 92 – 85 ECU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | UCF 72 – 62 ECU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | UCF 64 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#182) | 9.6 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#146) | 1.73 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#137) | 2.82 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#181) | 0.586 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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