Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ECU +125 UCF -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -0.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -1.1 (-2.9) | 135.8 (-11.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.1 (-3.9) | 135.0 (-11.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -0.3 (-3.7) | 137.4 (-13.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.7 (-3.3) | 136.2 (-12.2) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | UCF 84 – 58 ECU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UCF 64 – 61 ECU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | UCF 69 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 19, 2022 | UCF 92 – 85 ECU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | UCF 72 – 62 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 2-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#148) | 4.2 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#145) | 1.20 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#133) | 1.64 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#196) | 0.550 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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