Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -800 ECU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +26 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -13.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -11.3 (+14.7) | 137.1 (+4.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -11.0 (+15.0) | 136.2 (+5.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -11.6 (+14.4) | 136.2 (+5.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -11.8 (+14.2) | 136.6 (+5.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2023 | UCF 64 – 61 ECU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | UCF 69 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 19, 2022 | UCF 92 – 85 ECU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | UCF 72 – 62 ECU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | UCF 64 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#67) | -1.4 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#104) | -0.13 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#94) | -0.03 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#113) | 0.477 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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