Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -475 ECU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -9.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -8.3 (-5.3) | 142.8 (-7.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -9.0 (-6.0) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -8.3 (-5.3) | 143.4 (-8.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -8.4 (-5.4) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | UCF 84 – 58 ECU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UCF 64 – 61 ECU |
| Jan 19, 2022 | UCF 92 – 85 ECU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | UCF 72 – 62 ECU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | UCF 64 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#95) | -0.7 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#83) | 0.28 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#80) | 0.18 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#106) | 0.490 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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