UCF
Knights
72
–
62
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
East Carolina
Pirates
Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -163 ECU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -4.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -3.7 (+6.3) | 136.7 (-2.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.6 (+7.4) | 134.1 (-0.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -3.9 (+6.1) | 135.7 (-1.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -4.2 (+5.8) | 135.9 (-1.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | UCF 84 – 58 ECU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UCF 64 – 61 ECU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | UCF 69 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 19, 2022 | UCF 92 – 85 ECU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | UCF 64 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-10 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#109) | -0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#78) | -0.00 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#80) | 0.16 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#67) | 0.463 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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