Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +7 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -1.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+32.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -1.4 (-5.6) | 142.2 (+34.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.7 (-4.3) | 141.1 (+35.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -0.9 (-6.1) | 144.9 (+32.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.6 (-5.4) | 144.8 (+32.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | UCF 84 – 58 ECU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UCF 64 – 61 ECU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | UCF 69 – 66 ECU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | UCF 72 – 62 ECU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | UCF 64 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 6.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#109) | 1.20 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#126) | 1.63 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#126) | 0.548 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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