Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | RAD -350 UPST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -14.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -9.7 (-14.7) | 139.6 (-14.6) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -8.4 (-13.4) | 139.7 (-14.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -9.8 (-14.8) | 139.3 (-14.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -9.4 (-14.4) | 139.7 (-14.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | -9.2 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#271) | -0.64 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#262) | -1.22 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#256) | 0.455 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 59.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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