Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -250 PRES +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -7.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -4.7 (+5.3) | 134.0 (+20.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -6.1 (+3.9) | 134.2 (+19.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.9 (+5.1) | 138.5 (+15.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.9 (+5.1) | 138.7 (+15.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIN 73 – 71 PRES |
| Feb 28, 2026 | WIN 74 – 70 PRES |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WIN 82 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 20, 2025 | WIN 81 – 77 PRES |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WIN 76 – 67 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L18 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#289) | -9.2 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#243) | -2.21 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#257) | -2.40 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#233) | 0.381 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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