Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +140 UNI -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +2 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -2.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -2.2 (+0.2) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -3.7 (+1.7) | 136.5 (-0.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -2.1 (+0.1) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -2.3 (+0.3) | 137.5 (-1.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#313) | -2.0 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#287) | -1.07 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#308) | -0.77 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#321) | 0.439 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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