Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -188 CSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -8.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -7.2 (+3.8) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -7.2 (+3.8) | 139.4 (+9.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -6.9 (+4.1) | 143.0 (+6.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -7.3 (+3.7) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NEV 75 – 62 CSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CSU 67 – 59 NEV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | CSU 79 – 71 NEV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CSU 66 – 64 NEV |
| Mar 15, 2024 | CSU 85 – 78 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#67) | 4.0 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#39) | 0.47 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#52) | 0.54 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#12) | 0.532 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 5.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 16.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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