Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -188 LUC +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +23 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -8.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -6.4 (+16.6) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -6.7 (+16.3) | 137.5 (-0.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -4.8 (+18.2) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -5.1 (+17.9) | 137.9 (-0.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DAV 64 – 59 LUC |
| Feb 6, 2026 | DAV 84 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2026 | DAV 79 – 64 LUC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | LUC 82 – 72 DAV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | LUC 77 – 69 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#177) | -4.3 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#128) | -0.85 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#108) | -0.98 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#77) | 0.444 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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