Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MER -110 WOF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +1 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -4.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-40.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.9 (-2.9) | 141.6 (-36.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.3 (-2.3) | 137.2 (-32.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.7 (-3.7) | 142.8 (-37.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.6 (-3.6) | 143.4 (-38.4) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | WOF 80 – 77 MER |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MER 109 – 97 WOF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WOF 77 – 66 MER |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WOF 69 – 49 MER |
| Feb 15, 2024 | WOF 73 – 60 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#208) | -2.1 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#240) | -0.61 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#243) | -0.77 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#255) | 0.460 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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