Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -350 MIZ +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -9.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.5 (-1.5) | 156.0 (-14.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -9.3 (-3.3) | 155.0 (-13.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -8.0 (-2.0) | 156.8 (-14.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -7.7 (-1.7) | 156.6 (-14.6) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#11) | 10.1 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#25) | 3.07 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#16) | 3.63 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#11) | 0.603 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 26.0% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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