Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NU +138 ILL -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NU -0.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -3.0 (+10.0) | 132.8 (+0.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -1.0 (+12.0) | 132.0 (+1.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -2.4 (+10.6) | 130.5 (+2.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -2.7 (+10.3) | 132.4 (+0.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ILL 84 – 44 NU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ILL 79 – 68 NU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ILL 83 – 74 NU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NU 70 – 66 ILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | NU 96 – 91 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#54) | 12.3 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#61) | 1.71 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#66) | 2.24 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#61) | 0.554 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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