I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · January 5, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -13.5 Home covered
O/U 126.5 Over
Money MOST -900 / EVAN +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual MOST +23 147 Won
Massey MOST -18.0 (+5.0)
Massey Totals 124.6 (+22.4)
Bradley-Terry 92%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline ML MOST -13.1 (+9.9) 133.7 (+13.3) 85%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -12.6 (+10.4) 132.7 (+14.3) 84%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -16.1 (+6.9) 130.6 (+16.4) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -13.0 (+10.0) 132.7 (+14.3) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 13, 2025 MOST 7154 EVAN
Dec 29, 2024 EVAN 5740 MOST
Jan 14, 2024 MOST 7464 EVAN
Nov 30, 2023 MOST 9078 EVAN
Feb 12, 2023 MOST 6660 EVAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST EVAN
Overall 17-15 5-27
Conference 12-8 1-19
Home 10-4 3-10
Away 5-8 1-14
Neutral 2-3 1-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L6
Avg Pts For 65.0 62.4
Avg Pts Against 63.7 76.0
Massey 4.2 (#103) -9.5 (#328)
Bradley-Terry 0.31 (#141) -1.39 (#302)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.64 (#122) -1.97 (#312)
RPI 0.536 (#113) 0.416 (#318)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST EVAN
FG% 43.2% 38.7%
3PT% 32.9% 29.5%
REB / G 33.5 34.4
OREB / G 9.9 9.5
AST / TO 0.97 0.87
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 43.6%
TOV% 18.6% 17.2%
ORB% 29.2% 24.3%
FT Rate 15.0% 18.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.8% 53.3%
Opp TOV% 19.9% 18.3%
DRB% 72.4% 77.4%
Opp FT Rate 19.9% 25.6%

Game Analysis

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