Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -900 EVAN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +23 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -18.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -16.1 (+6.9) | 130.6 (+16.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -13.0 (+10.0) | 132.7 (+14.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -13.1 (+9.9) | 133.7 (+13.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -12.6 (+10.4) | 132.7 (+14.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | MOST 71 – 54 EVAN |
| Dec 29, 2024 | EVAN 57 – 40 MOST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MOST 74 – 64 EVAN |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MOST 90 – 78 EVAN |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MOST 66 – 60 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 1-19 |
| Home | 10-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#103) | -9.5 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#141) | -1.39 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#122) | -1.97 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#113) | 0.416 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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