Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +180 MOST -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | EVAN -2.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -0.1 (-9.9) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EVAN -1.6 (-11.6) | 140.3 (-2.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EVAN -1.0 (-11.0) | 140.0 (-2.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EVAN -1.3 (-11.3) | 143.0 (-5.0) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | MOST 71 – 54 EVAN |
| Dec 29, 2024 | EVAN 57 – 40 MOST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MOST 90 – 78 EVAN |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MOST 66 – 60 EVAN |
| Jan 5, 2023 | MOST 85 – 62 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#180) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#149) | -0.05 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#175) | 0.07 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#115) | 0.492 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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