They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
Missouri Valley Conference · Ford Center · January 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -4.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money EVAN +180 / MOST -175
Model Predictions
Spread Total EVAN win
Actual MOST +10 138 Lost
Massey EVAN -2.9 (-12.9)
Massey Totals 144.0 (-6.0)
Bradley-Terry 75%
Weighted B-T 69%
Baseline ML EVAN -1.0 (-11.0) 140.0 (-2.0) 61%
Baseline Plus ML EVAN -1.3 (-11.3) 143.0 (-5.0) 59%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -0.1 (-9.9) 143.5 (-5.5) 55%
Baseline Tuned ML EVAN -1.6 (-11.6) 140.3 (-2.3) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 13, 2025 MOST 7154 EVAN
Dec 29, 2024 EVAN 5740 MOST
Nov 30, 2023 MOST 9078 EVAN
Feb 12, 2023 MOST 6660 EVAN
Jan 5, 2023 MOST 8562 EVAN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EVAN MOST
Overall 17-18 17-16
Conference 6-14 8-12
Home 10-5 9-5
Away 4-11 4-10
Neutral 3-2 4-1
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.6 71.2
Avg Pts Against 74.0 71.3
Massey -0.7 (#180) 0.4 (#157)
Bradley-Terry 0.30 (#149) -0.05 (#181)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.03 (#175) 0.07 (#172)
RPI 0.535 (#115) 0.492 (#187)
Shooting & Four Factors EVAN MOST
FG% 45.5% 43.6%
3PT% 32.8% 31.4%
REB / G 34.7 38.4
OREB / G 8.0 9.1
AST / TO 1.26 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 50.3%
TOV% 16.4% 18.6%
ORB% 22.7% 27.2%
FT Rate 20.7% 24.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 45.4%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 13.7%
DRB% 74.2% 74.6%
Opp FT Rate 18.9% 17.3%

Game Analysis

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