Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -700 EVAN +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +12 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -4.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -4.7 (+7.3) | 148.0 (+20.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -2.4 (+9.6) | 141.2 (+26.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -2.5 (+9.5) | 141.2 (+26.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -1.7 (+10.3) | 143.7 (+24.3) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | MOST 71 – 54 EVAN |
| Dec 29, 2024 | EVAN 57 – 40 MOST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MOST 74 – 64 EVAN |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MOST 66 – 60 EVAN |
| Jan 5, 2023 | MOST 85 – 62 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#98) | 6.8 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#99) | 3.14 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#100) | 4.06 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#133) | 0.658 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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