Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +310 MOST -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +6 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -9.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -9.5 (+3.5) | 127.8 (-1.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -8.5 (+2.5) | 131.4 (-5.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -8.1 (+2.1) | 132.7 (-6.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -8.3 (+2.3) | 130.7 (-4.7) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | MOST 71 – 54 EVAN |
| Dec 29, 2024 | EVAN 57 – 40 MOST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MOST 74 – 64 EVAN |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MOST 90 – 78 EVAN |
| Jan 5, 2023 | MOST 85 – 62 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 12-8 |
| Home | 3-10 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 63.7 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#347) | 1.1 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#328) | 0.23 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#330) | 0.10 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#332) | 0.525 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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