Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -1000 VMI +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -15.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -11.0 (-2.0) | 142.3 (+22.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -10.2 (-1.2) | 141.4 (+23.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -10.7 (-1.7) | 144.0 (+21.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -10.7 (-1.7) | 143.4 (+21.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | SAM 80 – 61 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SAM 78 – 58 VMI |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SAM 95 – 83 VMI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SAM 81 – 68 VMI |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SAM 102 – 63 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 2-16 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#153) | -10.1 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#239) | -2.10 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#207) | -2.74 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#269) | 0.396 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.