Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | PV -120 SOU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -2.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -2.1 (-6.1) | 144.4 (-16.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -1.7 (-5.7) | 142.6 (-14.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -2.4 (-6.4) | 144.0 (-16.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -1.2 (-5.2) | 144.3 (-16.3) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-3 | 9-2 |
| Away | 4-14 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#247) | -2.5 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#242) | -0.83 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#222) | -1.34 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#219) | 0.481 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 36.5% |
Game Analysis
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