Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | ELON +450 UNCW -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +15 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -10.3 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -10.3 (-4.7) | 135.5 (+11.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -9.9 (-5.1) | 136.4 (+10.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -10.7 (-4.3) | 135.6 (+11.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -10.4 (-4.6) | 137.1 (+9.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#339) | 4.0 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.30 (#363) | 2.25 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.54 (#362) | 2.67 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.324 (#361) | 0.608 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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