Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ +100 VCU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -3.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -1.9 (+7.1) | 136.3 (+12.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -2.7 (+6.3) | 138.4 (+10.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -2.7 (+6.3) | 137.6 (+11.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -3.3 (+5.7) | 137.1 (+11.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | VCU 71 – 66 DUQ |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VCU 93 – 80 DUQ |
| Mar 5, 2025 | VCU 71 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 17, 2024 | DUQ 57 – 51 VCU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | DUQ 69 – 59 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#134) | 2.6 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#101) | 0.88 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#114) | 0.77 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#100) | 0.539 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 35.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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