Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -345 DUQ +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -9.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -12.0 (-7.0) | 150.6 (-13.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -9.9 (-4.9) | 147.7 (-10.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -9.7 (-4.7) | 147.7 (-10.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -10.2 (-5.2) | 149.2 (-12.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | VCU 93 – 80 DUQ |
| Mar 5, 2025 | VCU 71 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 17, 2024 | DUQ 57 – 51 VCU |
| Mar 6, 2024 | DUQ 69 – 59 VCU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | DUQ 79 – 70 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#47) | 2.7 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#42) | 0.38 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#46) | 0.42 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#32) | 0.520 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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