Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU +170 DUKE -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +24 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -0.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -1.3 (+22.7) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -0.9 (+24.9) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -0.8 (+23.2) | 143.7 (+0.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -0.9 (+23.1) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | DUKE 93 – 64 NCSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 31, 2024 | NCSU 76 – 64 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 69 DUKE |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DUKE 79 – 64 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#53) | 13.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#62) | 2.59 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#64) | 3.50 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#80) | 0.624 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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