Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -700 NCSU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -9.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.5 (-13.5) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -7.6 (-12.6) | 143.3 (-0.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -9.0 (-14.0) | 147.7 (-4.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.9 (-13.9) | 148.2 (-5.2) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | DUKE 93 – 64 NCSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 31, 2024 | NCSU 76 – 64 DUKE |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DUKE 79 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DUKE 71 – 67 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#11) | 8.1 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#15) | 1.42 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#12) | 1.71 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#23) | 0.527 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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