Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -300 NCSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -4.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -5.3 (-1.3) | 144.2 (-6.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -7.3 (-3.3) | 142.1 (-4.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.7 (-1.7) | 143.6 (-5.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -5.4 (-1.4) | 145.0 (-7.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | DUKE 93 – 64 NCSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 31, 2024 | NCSU 76 – 64 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 69 DUKE |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DUKE 79 – 64 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#29) | 10.3 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#20) | 2.11 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#24) | 2.44 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#22) | 0.577 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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