Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -300 NCSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -8.6 (-20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -6.5 (-18.5) | 140.2 (-0.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -6.1 (-18.1) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.9 (-17.9) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -5.8 (-17.8) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | DUKE 93 – 64 NCSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 69 DUKE |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DUKE 79 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DUKE 71 – 67 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 18.8 (#9) | 10.3 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#8) | 2.08 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#8) | 2.46 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#14) | 0.555 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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