Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU +410 DUKE -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +29 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -9.8 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -8.3 (-20.7) | 146.4 (+10.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -8.4 (-20.6) | 148.1 (+8.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.5 (-18.5) | 149.6 (+7.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.0 (-19.0) | 148.2 (+8.8) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 31, 2024 | NCSU 76 – 64 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 69 DUKE |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DUKE 79 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DUKE 71 – 67 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-1 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#27) | 28.9 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#41) | 4.98 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#40) | 6.64 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#41) | 0.682 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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