Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU +188 DUKE -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -6.7 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -5.7 (-9.3) | 149.9 (-6.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -4.4 (-10.6) | 147.4 (-4.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.8 (-10.2) | 149.2 (-6.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.7 (-10.3) | 149.1 (-6.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | DUKE 93 – 64 NCSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 31, 2024 | NCSU 76 – 64 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 69 DUKE |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DUKE 71 – 67 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#76) | 17.7 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#73) | 2.51 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#77) | 3.27 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#127) | 0.607 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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