Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -10000 NCSU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -24.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -20.0 (-10.0) | 134.2 (+3.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -17.0 (-7.0) | 136.4 (+1.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -18.4 (-8.4) | 135.8 (+2.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -20.1 (-10.1) | 135.1 (+2.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | DUKE 93 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 31, 2024 | NCSU 76 – 64 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2024 | NCSU 74 – 69 DUKE |
| Mar 5, 2024 | DUKE 79 – 64 NCSU |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DUKE 71 – 67 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 5-15 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-6 |
| Away | 10-1 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 25.7 (#3) | 5.0 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#2) | 0.02 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.49 (#2) | 0.40 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.659 (#6) | 0.472 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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