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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi State
@
Tennessee
|
+13.3 | 109.8 | 89% | 53–87 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Boston College
|
+0.8 | 130.9 | 53% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Louisville
|
-9.4 | 135.6 | 20% | 70–69 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Michigan State
|
+4.5 | 126.4 | 66% | 56–74 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Vanderbilt
|
+13.4 | 127.3 | 89% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+3.3 | 159.3 | 62% | 91–65 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Toledo
|
+5.1 | 164.8 | 68% | 90–83 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+24.1 | 135.7 | 99% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Buffalo
|
-0.3 | 156.0 | 49% | 72–75 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Akron
|
+12.6 | 137.1 | 87% | 51–76 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
+9.7 | 151.9 | 81% | 56–68 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Kentucky
|
+11.1 | 139.3 | 84% | 71–74 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Creighton
|
+9.2 | 135.1 | 80% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Texas Tech
|
-0.1 | 140.4 | 50% | 75–72 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Texas
|
+9.7 | 141.0 | 81% | 116–103 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Alabama
|
+15.6 | 148.1 | 92% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Pittsburgh
|
-2.5 | 128.6 | 41% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Minnesota
@
Wisconsin
|
+15.5 | 123.1 | 92% | 60–63 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Air Force
|
-6.6 | 141.5 | 28% | 77–65 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Boise State
|
+9.4 | 122.8 | 80% | 64–67 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
-6.0 | 133.8 | 29% | 67–71 | ✗ |
Charleston
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-9.3 | 154.4 | 20% | 92–79 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Georgia
|
-4.4 | 127.6 | 35% | 64–76 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
Georgetown
|
-4.8 | 147.6 | 33% | 73–57 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.