Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
Atlantic Coast Conference · Petersen Events Center · January 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UVA -6.5 Home covered
O/U 125.5 Over
Money PITT +188 / UVA -250
Model Predictions
Spread Total PITT win
Actual PITT +3 133 Won
Massey UVA -1.6 (+4.6)
Massey Totals 128.6 (+4.4)
Bradley-Terry 30%
Weighted B-T 28%
Baseline Plus ML PITT -0.1 (+2.9) 131.6 (+1.4) 56%
Model 4 ML UVA -1.3 (+4.3) 129.1 (+3.9) 53%
Model 3 ML UVA -0.2 (+3.2) 132.7 (+0.3) 51%
Baseline ML UVA -0.2 (+3.2) 132.9 (+0.1) 61%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 4, 2026 UVA 6747 PITT
Feb 4, 2025 UVA 7357 PITT
Feb 14, 2024 PITT 7463 UVA
Jan 20, 2022 UVA 6661 PITT
Dec 4, 2021 UVA 5756 PITT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PITT UVA
Overall 24-12 25-8
Conference 14-6 15-5
Home 14-3 15-1
Away 7-5 6-5
Neutral 3-4 4-2
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 75.1 67.8
Avg Pts Against 69.7 60.5
Massey 7.1 (#76) 13.0 (#21)
Bradley-Terry 1.44 (#64) 3.04 (#12)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.01 (#62) 3.81 (#11)
RPI 0.572 (#62) 0.617 (#23)
Shooting & Four Factors PITT UVA
FG% 45.2% 45.8%
3PT% 34.2% 36.7%
REB / G 39.9 33.1
OREB / G 11.6 8.5
AST / TO 1.12 1.62
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.7% 52.7%
TOV% 19.3% 15.4%
ORB% 33.3% 27.6%
FT Rate 23.9% 32.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.4% 46.4%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 21.0%
DRB% 72.9% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 19.3% 17.5%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.