Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +188 UVA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -1.6 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.2 (+3.2) | 132.7 (+0.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.3 (+4.3) | 129.1 (+3.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -0.1 (+2.9) | 131.6 (+1.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.2 (+3.2) | 132.9 (+0.1) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UVA 67 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UVA 73 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PITT 74 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 20, 2022 | UVA 66 – 61 PITT |
| Dec 4, 2021 | UVA 57 – 56 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 60.5 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#76) | 13.0 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#64) | 3.04 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#62) | 3.81 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#62) | 0.617 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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