Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 116.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -3.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 109.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -2.5 (-2.5) | 123.9 (+3.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -2.6 (-2.4) | 126.3 (+0.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -3.4 (-1.6) | 125.3 (+1.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -2.7 (-2.3) | 125.6 (+1.4) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UVA 67 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UVA 73 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PITT 74 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2023 | PITT 68 – 65 UVA |
| Dec 4, 2021 | UVA 57 – 56 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-11 | 11-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 60.1 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#193) | 5.5 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#190) | 0.94 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#197) | 1.28 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#201) | 0.535 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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