Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1000 PITT +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +20 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -15.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -13.1 (+6.9) | 143.0 (-29.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -12.0 (+8.0) | 142.2 (-28.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -13.6 (+6.4) | 145.0 (-31.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -14.2 (+5.8) | 144.9 (-30.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2025 | UVA 73 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PITT 74 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2023 | PITT 68 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 20, 2022 | UVA 66 – 61 PITT |
| Dec 4, 2021 | UVA 57 – 56 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-10 |
| Away | 8-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#24) | 5.7 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#19) | 0.20 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#18) | 0.39 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#23) | 0.495 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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