Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -275 PITT +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -3.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -3.9 (-14.9) | 122.2 (+14.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -3.2 (-14.2) | 120.7 (+16.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -2.5 (-13.5) | 124.2 (+12.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -4.0 (-15.0) | 122.9 (+14.1) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UVA 67 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UVA 73 – 57 PITT |
| Jan 4, 2023 | PITT 68 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 20, 2022 | UVA 66 – 61 PITT |
| Dec 4, 2021 | UVA 57 – 56 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#52) | 10.2 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#24) | 1.36 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#45) | 1.62 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#21) | 0.535 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.90 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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