Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -1050 UVA +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +16 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -15.4 (-31.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -12.5 (-28.5) | 135.8 (-5.8) | 84% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | PITT -12.3 (-28.3) | 133.9 (-3.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | PITT -12.1 (-28.1) | 136.5 (-6.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -12.2 (-28.2) | 137.5 (-7.5) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UVA 67 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PITT 74 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2023 | PITT 68 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 20, 2022 | UVA 66 – 61 PITT |
| Dec 4, 2021 | UVA 57 – 56 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#33) | 2.1 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#45) | 0.21 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#47) | 0.46 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#36) | 0.502 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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