Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 112.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +1 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -20.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -15.5 (-14.5) | 121.9 (-8.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -13.4 (-12.4) | 121.9 (-8.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -13.9 (-12.9) | 127.1 (-14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -15.5 (-14.5) | 125.8 (-12.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UVA 67 – 47 PITT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UVA 73 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | PITT 74 – 63 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2023 | PITT 68 – 65 UVA |
| Jan 20, 2022 | UVA 66 – 61 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-11 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#69) | -7.1 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#90) | -1.37 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#62) | -1.86 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#100) | 0.474 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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