Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | AF +250 USU -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +12 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -7.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -7.1 (-4.9) | 141.0 (+1.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.5 (-5.5) | 140.9 (+1.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.9 (-5.1) | 140.8 (+1.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.6 (-5.4) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#161) | 12.8 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#196) | 2.07 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#206) | 3.10 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#248) | 0.625 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 41.6% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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