Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +350 VILL -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +16 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -4.7 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -4.6 (-11.4) | 145.6 (-15.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -6.1 (-9.9) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.2 (-10.8) | 145.8 (-15.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -5.8 (-10.2) | 145.4 (-15.4) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | GTWN 78 – 64 VILL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VILL 80 – 73 GTWN |
| Jan 22, 2026 | VILL 66 – 51 GTWN |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GTWN 75 – 73 VILL |
| Jan 20, 2025 | GTWN 64 – 63 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 5-12 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#231) | 5.8 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#247) | 0.40 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#240) | 0.78 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#210) | 0.536 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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