Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | BC +115 ND -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BC -1.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -0.3 (+6.7) | 133.4 (-0.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -0.1 (+7.1) | 132.6 (+0.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -1.1 (+5.9) | 134.0 (-1.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -0.5 (+6.5) | 135.1 (-2.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#224) | 0.2 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#192) | 0.08 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#184) | 0.59 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#199) | 0.509 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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